Many National Assembly’s deputies felt insecure about the North-South railway project cost, estimated at $56 billion while some supoorted this project.
Vietnam’s GDP 2009 was $90 billion. The capital for this project is $56 billion and may climb higher in the next 30 years, along with inflation, observed NA Legal Committee Chair Nguyen Van Thuan on May 21.
He wondered about the source of capital. “The government’s debt is up to 42 percent. If this project is carried out, where will the money come from? Haven’t we learned a lesson from Greece, which is in crisis because of public debts and needs assistance from all of Europe? We can’t approve this project to let our children bear this debt,” Thuan argued.
Thuan cited some projects that looked very good on paper, such as the Ho Chi Minh highway. When this highway was opened for traffic, it didn’t attract vehicles.
“The (railway) project is quite lavish. I will not approve it. We will reconsider it in the next 10-20 years. If I approve it now, I will feel like I am making a mistake for future generations,” he added.
NA Committee for Culture-Education, Youth and Children Vice-Chair Nguyen Minh Thuyet compared this project with a poor couple who must struggle to take care of their children, but when they see their neighbors buy a car, they also borrow money to buy one too.
Thuyet is also concerned about the huge capital needed for this project when Vietnam must invest in other big projects, including nuclear power plants in Ninh Thuan province. The Vice-Chair questioned why only 11 countries in the world have built express railways.
Thuyet raised several questions: “We hope that with this express railway, we can have breakfast in HCM City, lunch in Da Nang and dinner in Hanoi. HCM City’s residents can work in Hanoi and return home within the day. But who can afford train fare that is equivalent to 50-70 percent of air fares? Without passengers, how can we retrieve capital?”
Supporting these views, Deputy Le Van Tam (Can Tho) asserted that the express railway is a “luxurious” project, Deputy Ngo Van Minh (Quang Nam) characterized it as “too romantic” while Deputy Phuong Huu Viet (Bac Giang) called it “sudden inspiration.” Deputies Ha Thanh Toan (Can Tho) and Ngo Van Minh (Quang Nam) questioned why a rich country like the US has no transnational express highway, while a poor country like Vietnam wants to pursue such a huge project?
“Vietnam is a poor country where most people live in rural areas where life and traffic is very difficult. Building an express railway is lavish and unfair,” concluded Deputy Le Van Tam.
Many deputies cited the case of Noi Bai International Airport in Hanoi, calling it untidy with plastic buckets used to catch rain water and citing how it sometimes takes over two hours to go from downtown to the airport. They concurred that the current railway is both outdated and unsafe, so the Government should not “draw” new projects.
NA Committee for Foreign Relations Chair Nguyen Van Son claimed that this is a “magnificent” project for the next 50-70 years.
Some deputies suggested building the HCM City-Nha Trang or Hanoi-Vinh segment on a trial basis as a learning experience.
Deputy Nguyen Ba Thanh, Party Secretary of Da Nang, is not worried about the capital, because Vietnam can borrow money and pay. Instead he is concerned about the way this project is to be implemented. “We plan to build 1570km, but only 364km will run on land, the remaining will be bridges and tunnels when geological conditions are complicated. If an incident happens, it will be very difficult to resolve,” Thanh warned.
“I only hope that the express railway can reach 200km/hour. We should not be too romantic in building a railway for 300km/h or to build the longest express railway in the world,” he added.
Deputy Nguyen Tan Trinh revealed his unease about safety issues, citing how children still throw bricks and stones at passing trains. “We can’t deal with people’s awareness of railway safety, so how can we ensure safety for express trains?” Trinh cautioned.
Many deputies also questioned the Japanese EMU technology, which may become outdated in the next 25 years.
“This project will also make affect the natural flow of rivers, especially in the central region, causing changes to the environment,” remarked Deputy Vu Thi Phuong Anh (Quang Nam).
Most deputies proposed not approving the plan right now because it is not very necessary.
“We should upgrade and perfect current road and railway systems. To serve cargo transportation, it is better to invest in waterway networks,” suggested Deputy Ha Thanh Toan.
Deputy Phung Thanh Kiem (Lang Son) noted: “The National Assembly still complains about the Government’s inaccurate forecast for 5-10 year strategies, while we sit here talking about a traffic project for the next 23 years. Is it practical?”
Deputy Tran Du Lich (HCM City) proposed that technology, economics and life will change greatly in the next 20 years. “What mean of transport will be the major one in the next 15-20 years? It should not be cars because this is a personal vehicle. Waterways? We have developed them, but we should consider further expansion. Trains will be the major vehicles and we should have invested in railways a long time ago,” Lich analyzed.
He went on to say that if Vietnam chooses normal trains that can run at the speed of 200km/h, when the country need express trains it will be unable to upgrade. “In the early 1990s, our telecommunications system was a zero. At that time, we discussed what to choose, analog or digital. Luckily, we selected digital technology and that was a sound strategy. What would have happened if we had chosen analog?” Lich questioned.
Based on these points, Lich argued that the express railway project is suitable for Vietnam, but wondered about difficulties in choosing contractors.
“It would be a problem if we compare $56 billion with GDP. But if we share it for 20 years, then the figure is not too high,” Lich estimated.
Deputy Pham Thi Loan (Hanoi) pointed out that Taiwan planned to build express railway system at a cost of $27 billion, but the real cost was only $16 billion and it needed only 20 years to retrieve capital. Loan suggested allowing the public and foreign investors to take part in this project to quickly retrieve capital.
Minister of Planning and Investment Vo Hong Phuc reasoned that this project must be considered based on Vietnam’s development, not current conditions. Japan built its express railway after the Second World War and paid its debt to the World Bank after 40 years.
Deputies from the provinces where the express railway will pass through praised the railways in the US and some European countries they witnessed with their own eyes.
Minister of Transportation Ho Nghia Dung provided more information on the project. He explained that the current railway system in Vietnam was built 120 years ago and it was a great work at that time. “The current development of the economy poses the need for investment in railways, he proposed.
About the biggest concern, that of capital, Dung explained that Vietnam may have to mobilize capital from various sources, but the capital structure for this project is not defined yet.
As for safety, Dung responded that two-thirds of the rail line will run through viaducts, far from residential areas, and that there will be fences for other segments.
The Minister averred that Vietnam should build this system, giving priority to the HCM City-Nha Trang and Hanoi-Vinh sections. “After these segments are built, we will consider the actual situation to make decisions about the construction of remaining segments,” he stated.
The NA will continue its discussion about the express railway project on June 8.
PV
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